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monetary policy

Serbia’s inflation outlook improves, but sticky core prices keep monetary policy tight

Serbia’s inflation picture has improved sharply during the summer, prompting Raiffeisen Bank to cut its forecast for year-end inflation to 5.1% from 5.7%, while simultaneously raising its...

Dinarization is working—Gradually, not completely

For years, euroization has limited the effectiveness of monetary policy in Serbia. When households and companies borrow or save primarily in euros, changes in...

Serbia’s monetary stability now needs a productivity dividend

The most important message from the NBS bulletin is that Serbia’s monetary framework is still credible. Reserves are high, the dinar remains supported, the...

National Bank of Serbia holds cautious line as inflation risks and global uncertainty keep rate cuts on hold

The National Bank of Serbia (NBS) is maintaining a cautious monetary policy stance despite inflation returning to its target range, reflecting continued concerns over...

Serbia’s inflation looks stable, but energy risk keeps monetary policy cautious

Serbia’s inflation picture at the start of 2026 looks far calmer than it did during the previous inflation cycle. Annual inflation stood at 2.8% in March, still below...

Serbia’s monetary policy anchors stability as rate plateau extends into 2026

Serbia’s monetary policy has entered a distinct late-cycle phase where stabilization, rather than tightening, defines the central bank’s posture. The National Bank of Serbia...

Dinar monetary policy anchors stability as Serbia retains strategic flexibility over economic conditions

Serbia’s monetary framework stands in contrast to euroised economies, providing a level of flexibility that is increasingly important in a volatile global environment. The...

Serbia interest rate framework reflects domestic policy control and enhances economic responsiveness

Serbia’s interest rate environment is defined by the country’s ability to conduct independent monetary policy, providing a level of flexibility that distinguishes it from...

Monetary pollicy turning point: Could Serbia begin cutting interest rates in 2026

Serbia’s monetary policy environment is approaching a potential turning point as inflation pressures gradually ease and economic growth moderates. After several years of restrictive...

Serbia’s monetary policy crossroads: Market expectations, real rates and timing of the first cut

Serbia enters 2026 with its monetary policy debate no longer centred on whether tightening has worked, but on how and when to unwind it...

From volatility to visibility: Serbia’s macro profile through an investor lens

For international investors and banking institutions, the most material change in Serbia’s macroeconomic profile entering 2026 is not the direction of growth, but the...

National Bank & financial indicators — Monetary policy discipline under pressure of uncertainty

The National Bank of Serbia enters late 2025 navigating a delicate balance: maintaining price stability, supporting growth, and preserving financial system credibility in an...

Central bank intervention signals short-term shift in Serbia’s monetary posture

Recent actions by the National Bank of Serbia, including targeted FX-market measures, point to a more tactical and intervention-ready monetary posture in the near...

Inflation in Serbia: Trends, monetary policy and expectations

In November 2023, the United States saw prices rise by 3.1% compared to October 2022, while the Eurozone experienced a 2.4% increase. The Federal...
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