Political analysts and representatives of state institutions believe that the influence of some great powers in Serbia is overestimated, because Serbia realizes most of its economic exchange with the European Union, while Serbia does not represent a significant geopolitical “battlefield” for Russia and China. “Serbia as a way station? Assessment of the impact of Russia, China and Turkey” organized by the Center for European Policies (CEP) in cooperation with the Konrad Adenauer Foundation.
Vesna Markovic from the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the National Assembly emphasizes that Serbia has so far opened 18 out of 35 chapters in EU integration.
“I think that is good considering the internal circumstances in the EU, because it was facing problems, the migrant crisis, terrorism, the pandemic,” Markovic believes.
She also reminds that some positive messages from German Chancellor Angela Merkel were recently heard at the EU summit in Sofia, but that in recent years there has been negative talk about the enlargement of the European Union.
“Our agreements with third countries end when we become a member. We currently have the largest trade exchange with the EU, while Italy and Germany are the largest investors in Serbia,” Markovic reminds.
She points out that Serbia’s path to the EU is very clear, but that Chinese investments in infrastructure have increased, Russia is investing in railways, and Turkey in highways.
“EU funds are important for Serbia, but they are not adequate for the strategic infrastructure projects we are working on, and that opens up empty space. When we talk about loans, every country takes care to get them as cheaply as possible,” Markovic explains.
She emphasizes that no one asked Serbia to impose sanctions on Russia and harmonize with the EU’s foreign policy, although that would be desirable. He reminds that the chapter on the common security policy is not open because it is blocked by the Baltic countries.
“I expect us to continue on the European path, we are about to reform the constitution due to the new way of electing judges and prosecutors, as well as improving cooperation in the region,” said the representative of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National Assembly.
Dejan Pavlićević from the Chinese University “Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool” estimates that China’s engagement in Serbia is not understood in the right way because the Balkans are considered to be an important geopolitical field.
“Serbia and the Balkans are only a part of the wider field and approach of China. We should not exaggerate the importance that Serbia has for China, when we talk about the “Belt and Road” initiative, because it is only one of the countries involved,” Pavlicevic said. He adds that Serbia carries out more than 60 percent of trade with the European Union.
He also emphasizes that China does not have the capacity to influence the problems related to Kosovo, nor does it have security interests in the region. He believes that the EU has strengthened less visible bureaucratized projects with Serbia, while Chinese infrastructure projects are more visible, but not much more important than European ones.
Maxim Samorukov from the Moscow Carnegie Center believes that the Russian presence in Serbia is declining, and adds that Serbia has made significant steps in the “diversification” of energy imports this year.
“This is also represented by the Minister of Energy, Zorana Mihajlovic, who believes that energy products imported from Russia are overpaid,” Samorukov estimates.
According to him, it should be borne in mind that the former Minister of Diplomacy Ivica Dacic, who was pro-Russian, went to a less important position of President of the National Assembly, and that “some other people in the energy sector, old friends of Gazprom had to resign.”
“We will soon see changes in the company Srbijagas,” Samorukov emphasizes.
He also reminds that the fact that the trade agreement with “Gazprom” expires in Serbia next year, which will have to offer better conditions for gas trade, speaks in favor of that.
“Russia’s status quo suits Russia,” said Maxim Samorukov.
According to his forecast, the joint military exercises of Russia and Serbia, which were suspended this summer, will not be renewed either. According to him, Russia’s influence will remain mild, but that does not mean that it cannot strengthen again, if Serbia moves quickly along the path of Euro-Atlantic integration.
“Russia currently has many problems in the post-Soviet space, such as the conflict in Ngorno Karabakh,” recalls the Russian analyst.
Relations between Serbia and Turkey are mainly based on the economy, because Turkey has realized that this cooperation pays off more, according to Hamdi Firat Buyuk, a political analyst at the Phoenix Politik platform.
“Turkey is building factories in Serbia while opening mosques in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and I don’t know how Erdogan will explain that to Bosniaks,” said the journalist, who is studying for a doctorate in Sarajevo.
He also says that Serbia attracts Turkey because it has a better infrastructure and a larger market than Kosovo, Northern Macedonia and BiH. At the same time, he emphasizes that the authoritarianism of the authorities is strengthening in both Serbia and Turkey.
“There are great similarities in management style, their career leaders started as pro-European and pro-democracy politicians, but now authoritarianism is growing stronger,” says Buyuk.
He also emphasizes that the Turkish president understands that Serbia is key to his position in the Balkans and reminds of the country’s intention to build the Sarajevo-Belgrade highway, which will connect Sarajevo with Novi Pazar, where Bosniaks live.
On the other hand, he notes that there are few Serbian investors in Turkey, and that the current business does not mean that the country will remain silent regarding the Kosovo issue.
He also estimates that with the end of the pandemic, the EU will again face migrants who are trying to come to Europe from Turkey.
He also notes that there is a new moment in the relations between Serbia and Turkey, and that is the trade in military drones, which has not been the case in the relations between the two countries so far, Nova Ekonomija reports.
