While Serbia is patiently waiting for Bulgaria to complete its part of the “Turkish Stream” gas pipeline so that Russian gas can flow along this route, and thus our country gets an alternative supply route, Prime Minister Boyko Borisov sends a message from his Facebook profile to attend the ceremony together with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis reception of the Bulgarian gas company “Bulgartransgas” as a full shareholder of the liquefied gas (LNG) terminal project near Alexandroupolis, Bulgarian National Radio reported two days ago.
Just a few days earlier, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that large reserves of natural gas had been found under the bottom of the Black Sea and that he hoped that Turkey would start using them in 2023. A few days after he promised good news that would reduce Turkey’s dependence on energy and introduce it to the “new era”, he said that reserves of 320 billion cubic meters had been discovered, but it had yet to be confirmed whether they could be exploited. At the same time, news is coming from Croatia that the construction of their LNG terminal for liquefied natural gas on the island of Krk is coming to an end and that it should start working in June next year.
Can LNG reach Serbia from Greece or Krk, will Russian gas reach us through the “Turkish Stream” or will it be Turkish gas and will the Bulgarians finish their part of the route to Serbia? Dr. Vojislav Vuletic, the president of the Gas Association of Serbia, says that this all resembles the old Serbian saying that we spin a skewer, and the rabbit is still in the forest.
– So, as for the story about the new LNG terminal in Greece that will be built with the Bulgarians, it remains unclear what are the quantities of natural liquefied gas, how long that gas will be able to supply Europe, as well as how long it will take to this project is being implemented so that gas can be consumed. Seven years ago, Romania started building a terminal near Constanta and it is not ready yet. Therefore, the message of all these projects is that Europe is trying to reduce its independence from Russian gas, and in fact there is no other gas. At least not in the next 10 years – says Vuletic.
He adds that LNG exists in larger quantities in Australia, Qatar and Indonesia, but they have already been leased from Japan, China and South Korea. In addition, the American story about liquefied natural gas, which they have been trying unsuccessfully to counter Russian gas for decades, is not profitable at this time when the price of a barrel of oil is at 45 dollars. This job is profitable for them if the price of black gold is higher than 55 dollars, otherwise they are at a loss. So, Europe, which now imports 35% of Russian gas, can only increase those quantities because there is no other gas for long-term supply, he is categorical.
– Serbia should not worry about the completion of the “Turkish Stream” through Bulgaria, because Europe said that this gas pipeline was important to it so that this part of the Balkans and Europe could be supplied with Russian gas – Vuletic points out.
On the other hand, Dr. Srecko Djukic, a connoisseur of world gas conditions, says that whether Serbia will use liquefied natural gas from Krk or Alexandroupolis depends on ourselves. Since nothing has been announced about that, it can be assumed that those gas trains were also missed, and we will really need it, so even today we need it for gasification and ecology. Since we are small consumers of gas in both absolute and relative amounts, the gas from those terminals will be both more expensive and more uncertain for Serbia.
– The mentioned terminals can become the only routes for the inflow of gas to Serbia, apart from the existing one via Hungary. Why? Because the fate of even the “Turkish Stream” under the Black Sea is uncertain, having in mind Ankara’s announcement that it will start gas exploitation in its part of the Black Sea from 2023 and, along with other gas supplies (Azerbaijan, liquefied gas, Mediterranean), Turkey can release Russian gas imports, especially through the Turkish Stream gas pipeline. There is also the “Blue Stream” under the Black Sea, through which the Turks buy 16 billion cubic meters of Russian gas a year – says Djukic.
In addition, he points out, the second pipe of “Turkish Stream” is endangered by American sanctions, just like “North Stream 2”. U.S. sanctions are not a threat, but part of their legislation. That is why all countries in the region, in the Balkans, have turned to looking for alternative sources of gas and ways to deliver them, our interlocutor explains, adding that they have realized that the American strategic game against Russian gas in Europe is a long-term and global matter solution for your needs.
If there is gas under the bottom of the Black Sea, the second pipe intended for Southeast Europe may remain empty, because the Bulgarians will use gas from the TAP and Alexandroupolis gas pipelines. In general, there is a great uncertainty in which we found ourselves, relying only on Russian gas, says Djukic, Politika reports.
