The current closure of economies in the European Union will result in a smaller inflow of orders from that market, which will undoubtedly weaken the dynamics of domestic industrial production and especially the decline in export activities, Sasa Djogovic, author of Macroeconomic Trends in Serbia, told Biznis.rs.
The lockdown, in which Serbia’s main economic partners are located, will also reduce imports, primary raw materials and raw materials, but also due to lower domestic consumption during December than usual before the holidays, and as a consequence of limited access to shopping malls, and imports of permanent and non-durable consumer goods will have negative dynamics.
“All this will spill over to the first month of 2021 in a stronger dimension, because more stocks will remain in the warehouses of both producers and traders, and restrictive measures in most of the EU will certainly remain in force at least until the middle of January. In addition, with the closure of EU countries, and the worsening of the situation in Great Britain and the appearance of a new strain of the virus, tourism will suffer a new drastic cut in the number of overnight stays of foreign guests,” says Djogovic.
A smaller number of foreigners, but also a certain implementation of the New Year’s holidays of the local population, for the most part, at home, will additionally affect the decline in retail traffic and turnover in catering.
“All the data speak in favor of the fact that tourism and catering will need additional financial injections, but they could also be indirect through the write-off of certain tax or parafiscal levies,” Djogovic concludes, N1 reports.
