Year-on-year inflation will remain within the target of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) of 3 plus / minus 1.5 percent throughout the projection period, and by the end of the current and in the first quarter of next year it will most likely be in the upper half of the target range.
“After reaching the level of 3.6 percent in May, partly due to the effect of the low base from May last year, year-on-year inflation, in line with the expectations of the National Bank of Serbia, slowed down to 3.3 percent in the next two months. Deviations from our expectations were recorded only in the prices of unprocessed food, which have been at a slightly higher level in the last few months,” said NBS Governor Jorgovanka Tabakovic at the presentation of the Inflation Report.
As stated by Tabakovic, from the second quarter of 2022, its decline should follow, so inflation from the second half of next year, until the end of the projection period, should move again in the lower half of the target range, ie. in the range of 1.5 to 3 percent.
The National Bank of Serbia has increased its economic growth projection for 2021 from 6 to 6.5 percent.
“We have included in our projection the possibility of a new wave of pandemics in the fall, but if that wave is milder and without significant consequences for the economy, our growth this year could be higher than the projected 6.5 percent,” Tabakovic said.
Starting from the analysis of planned capital projects in road, railway, energy and communal infrastructure in the next ten years and their direct and indirect effects on other parts of the economy, the NBS states that it has revised the projection of economic growth in the medium term – from 4%, to 4 and 5 percent.
“The central projection of the growth of the gross domestic product in the medium term is now 4.5 percent,” said Jorgovanka Tabakovic, Nova Ekonomija reports.
