We did not have to wait for the report of the European Commission to find out that Serbia is a captured state. The problem is that with this report, many expected concrete actions that would influence the beginning of the liberation of Serbia. Instead, a large package of serious investments in transport, energy, environment, and digital technologies has been announced.
Sanctions and financial support logically do not go together. How is it possible that the EU criticizes us at the same time and allocates serious funds to us? Perhaps it is better to start looking at the EU’s influence realistically instead of lamenting, confusing and / or despairing.
Serbia will not join the EU soon. There are no more those approximate years that are constantly moving. Until a new perspective is created (not to sound completely pessimistic), the EU must not be completely alienated from the region politically. The Union must pursue an active policy in order to maintain, at best, the existing level of public support among the citizens of Serbia. Another aspect because the EU could not leave us to ourselves is a kind of power vacuum that is occurring in Serbia. The leading states of the union know that nothing can replace the economy. But as crucial as economic flows are when assessing this impact, they are not sufficient for the bigger picture.
The first aspect mentioned is a matter of public diplomacy. But also a little bit of psychology. In 2003, EU enthusiasm was at the highest levels (about 76% of citizens would vote in a referendum to join the EU). This, however, was not the fruit of public diplomacy but of hope – people truly believed that it had dawned, that pass ability towards a prosperous life in Serbia was certain. This rise in enthusiasm happened back in 2009, when the visa regime for Serbian citizens was abolished. We felt that as a society we were moving towards real equality. However, many left Serbia before and after that and went to that union without wanting to return. This is just one of the many reasons why this enthusiasm has waned. Today, the situation is completely different – people can go and go. Those who cannot do that, and at the same time are disappointed, caustic, hopeless or just tired and indifferent, place their hopes in small certainties for themselves and their families, not in big stories about a bright EU future and European values.
It is not enough to give figures to these people. To say that the export of goods from Serbia to the EU is a huge 76%. Let us remind you that the EU is our biggest donor in various spheres of vital importance. There is really no alternative to these things. We are as closely connected to each other as possible. But economically. Some things can only be partially improved by improved public diplomacy. The Union will have to make a serious effort. For example, they can look at what Americans are doing – with actions you are the world, with reminders of common suffering, with awakening memories of joint heroic deeds – Americans see the importance of empathy, respect, pride and merit in the foreground. The numbers are often too cold and distant. Human stories, memories, recollections are far warmer. Such an approach arouses pleasant emotions, which consequently affect the quality of experience of some processes of political rapprochement. President Macron was on that trail when he gave a speech at Kalemegdan. But its citizens pay some bureaucrats and commissioners to deal with these things instead of him. Priorities must be known. It’s life.
The second part of the answer to the question about the influence of the EU in Serbia concerns the power vacuum. We have seen that the EU does not care that China is moving deeper and deeper to take root in the yard of the country that is its candidate. China’s interests are multidimensional and not so much a matter of transparent strategy. On the one hand, there is nothing necessarily wrong with China wanting to make one of the two continents, figuratively speaking – any connection with land, water and air flows has positive external effects. This increases freedom of movement, freedom of movement of goods and services. On the other hand, the question of the motives of connection must always exist – what are the deeper motives of that connection, under what conditions does it take place, does increasing connection, paradoxically, in the long run restrict citizens’ freedom of choice by monopolizing space and subtly imposing politically desirable outcomes? The question, then, is whether connecting carrots is for an invisible (not to say digital) stick whose power grows the greater the connection. Europe will not be able to fulfill the vacuum that deepens these issues without the decisive influence of America, but that is a special topic.
The challenge for the EU in the coming period will therefore be China’s techno-imperialist intentions – a strategy for Europe to start getting used to Chinese technological standards as much as possible, accepting goods and services of such standards as desirable, cheap and useful. In that sense, Serbia is seen as a small, modest laboratory with a management ready to perform experiments on its territory. Even with the region outside the EU for some time (not to sound completely pessimistic), the European leading powers do not have the luxury of being silent and passively watching what China is doing in Serbia and the region. These forces, on the other hand, will not even act counter-offensively like the United States, trying to prevent the spread from Beijing. The EU will do what it does best – or at least what it did best – to promote itself if it is an example of the achievable prosperity and freedoms provided by harmonized institutions and a trust-based economy.
But how will this be communicated (for those who remain)? When and will President Vucic kiss the blue flag behind the stars at all, as he kissed the red flag with the stars? Whoever is the president of the USA, Vucic’s dangerous adventure in the most sensitive part of Europe will not be approved. Some red lines will be drawn. As well as on the issue of Russia, for which those red lines were set earlier and they mainly concern security, defense and weapons. What will be the red lines with China? Have the outlines of that already been seen in the Washington paper?
While we wait for the answers to these questions, the EU will have to take the relationship between Belgrade and Pristina more seriously. As much as possible. The reputation and image of the EU have been seriously damaged in the domestic public, and these negotiations will have a certain impact on that. Maybe Merkel has an ace up her sleeve that she keeps for the end of the last quarter before she retires. And maybe it’s just our naive hope that the EU and its commissioners and envoys will have ideal solutions for all other people’s problems instead of ourselves. When did we even have a realistic attitude towards them?, Talas reports.
