In a recent telephone conversation with Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, the first man of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, promised that our country would have sufficient quantities of Russian gas, but did not say what consumers are most interested in, and that is at what price Srbijagas will buy it from Gazprom.
The expert public says that the citizens should be prepared for the fact that this figure will jump at least twice.
What is certain is that from January 1, the validity of the long-term contract on gas supply from Russia, when it comes to the Serbian market, will be extended for another six months. Gazprom, the Russian state giant, will sell that gas to Serbia at the current price of 270 dollars for 1,000 cubic meters of gas.
What is posed as a problem is that, at least according to the statements of the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, at this moment, Srbijagas must unplannedly import additional quantities of gas from Russia. The expert public points out that this is due to excessive consumption of “blue energy” from the underground storage “Banatski dvor” due to delays in the overhaul of block B1 at the Thermal Power Plant “Nikola Tesla B” in Obrenovac, which was out of order at that time.
What is unknown is at what price we buy the missing quantities of gas from Moscow and how much they amount to. The authorities are persistently silent about the price, and when it comes to the quantities, the information is contradictory. According to one variant, it is about six million cubic meters of gas per day, and according to another, four million cubic meters.
Both figures were presented by President Vučić. If we take into account that experts claim that the price at which Gazprom sells is 790 dollars to Serbia for 1,000 cubic meters of gas per day, for additional quantities Srbijagas pays 4.7 million or 3.1 million dollars.
Accordingly, the Serbian side is negotiating with Moscow on a long-term agreement that would provide Serbia with a better price for gas for additional quantities than it currently pays. It is also necessary to reach an agreement on the price of Russian gas for Serbia after the extension of the current agreement expires in the middle of next year.
Judging by the statements, when it would be different from President Vučić, the price of 270 dollars for 1,000 cubic meters will not be able to be maintained, but the Serbian side will fight to keep it “favorable”. The expert public points out that the price will increase at least twice, which will significantly increase the costs of Srbijgas, but despite the jump, Belgrade should be satisfied with it, given the level of stock prices that exceed 2,000 dollars per 1,000 cubic meters of gas.
The Secretary General of the Gas Association of Serbia, Vojislav Vuletić, points out that the Russian side will most likely offer Belgrade the formation of a new price according to the so-called oil formula.
– In practice, that means that the price of gas rises after the price of oil on the stock exchanges increases. This does not mean that gas will become more expensive at that moment, but, according to what the oil formula predicts, in nine months. Then, Serbia will certainly pay for gas at a higher price than it pays now under the current agreement. It is realistic to expect that it will be formed at the level between 400 and 500 dollars for 1,000 cubic meters of gas. I think that Serbia should be satisfied with that price – our interlocutor states.
Energy expert Velimir Gavrilovic agrees with the assessment that the price of gas for Serbia will not remain the same and that it will increase.
– If they had the intention to sell gas to Srbijagas at the current price, and after the extension of the six-month contract expires, the Russians would have already declared themselves. In that case, they would not limit the duration of that arrangement to six months.
Simply, the fact that the Greens in the new German coalition government are preventing the commissioning of the “North Stream 2” gas pipeline affects the growth of gas prices on the stock exchanges. That is the reason why Gazprom is raising the prices it forms on the basis of long-term contracts. Given the high stock market prices, the Russians will offer a price for the Serbian market of between 400 and 600 dollars for 1,000 cubic meters of gas. For the Russian side, the quantities we are looking for are too small, and Moscow also has strategic interests in this area, and that is why the price will not be higher than that – Gavrilović estimates.
Energy analyst Goran Radosavljevic says for Danas that it is very ungrateful to predict the prices at which the Russians will sell gas to our country in the coming period, but he points out that the price will certainly be better than the currently paid intervention import of gas due to insufficient quantities for industry and consumers in Serbia.
– I would agree that the new price could not be below 400 dollars for 1,000 cubic meters of gas. This is again lower than the price at which Srbijagas now pays the missing quantities, so the Serbian side should be satisfied with its amount. Of course, it will be necessary to set aside more money for it than planned in the current agreement concluded with Moscow, but it was not realistic to expect that this amount could still be valid. I think that Srbijagas should not sign a new long-term contract at this time, Danas reports.
