November 2023 marked the eighth consecutive month of decline in the value of foreign trade turnover on a year-on-year basis. Compared to November 2022, there was a 2.1% reduction in trade volume. Additionally, the current series, when adjusted for seasonal and calendar factors, saw a 2.0% decrease. Cumulatively from January to November 2023, the total foreign trade turnover was down by 1.6% compared to the same period in the previous year. Notably, during this time frame, the value of commodity imports decreased by 5.8%, while exports increased by 4.5%, resulting in a reduced trade deficit by 31.0% compared to the previous year.
In the first eleven months of 2023, the value of merchandise exports in euros amounted to 26,425 million euros, indicating a potential annual export revenue of 29 billion euros, which constitutes 42% of the GDP. This is a significant increase compared to a decade ago when Serbia’s total merchandise exports were valued at 11 billion euros, equivalent to 30% of the GDP, and even more so compared to 2008 when it was only 7.4 billion euros, equivalent to 21% of the GDP.
November marked the third consecutive month of year-on-year decline in the value of commodity exports, while imports have been steadily declining since January 2023, with a 2.9% decrease recorded in November. However, analyzing trade turnover trends reveals that the value of commodity exports has stabilized at a level about 2% higher than the previous year’s average over the last four months. On the other hand, the trend for commodity imports and the trade deficit shows a moderate increase.
For the first eleven months of 2023, nearly four-fifths of commodity imports were covered by exports (78.7%). In November, the coverage of imports by exports improved to 78.0%, which is 1.5 percentage points better compared to the same month in 2022.
The Manufacturing sector, accounting for the largest share in total commodity exports (88.7%), saw a cumulative export growth of 6.3% from January to November 2023 compared to the same period in 2022, with a year-on-year growth of 3.3% in November. Conversely, the Mining sector experienced a cumulative export decline of 18.5%, while the Electricity, Gas, Steam, and Air Conditioning Supply sector achieved a cumulative export growth of 58.5%.
Key sectors contributing significantly to the Manufacturing sector’s export value include Electrical Equipment Manufacturing, Motor Vehicle Manufacturing, Food Product Manufacturing, Rubber and Plastic Product Manufacturing, Other Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing, and Basic Metals Manufacturing.
Regarding imports, trends across all purpose groups have been generally increasing since July and August 2023, except for energy imports, which remain about one-third lower than the previous year’s average. The decline in commodity imports is mainly attributed to the decrease in energy imports and the import of intermediate goods.
Overall, while trade dynamics show a challenging landscape, there are promising signs of stability and growth in certain sectors, particularly in exports, which are crucial for sustaining economic momentum.
