After a sharp drop in economic activity in April and only a partial recovery in May, the recovery in the next three months was faster than expected, as industrial production and trade increased, and foreign trade mitigated the year-on-year decline, according to the latest October issue of Macroeconomic Analysis and Trends, MAT.
The bulletin points out that after a record year-on-year and seasonally adjusted current decline in industrial and manufacturing production, as well as a multi-year low of their seasonally adjusted value in April, very favorable trends later emerged.
Thanks to them, seasonally adjusted growth in July brought seasonally adjusted values to levels above the previous year’s average, and in August that level increased even more.
In terms of numbers, after a year-on-year decline of 16.7 percent in April, the year-on-year decline in total industrial production in May was reduced to 9.3 percent, so the cumulative decline in the January-April period was 6.5 percent.
As the year-on-year increase was 2.7 percent in June, 0.4 percent in July and 4.2 percent in August, the cumulative year-on-year decline was reduced to 0.7 percent for the period January-August.
When it comes to foreign trade, in April, both exports and imports were reduced by more than a quarter, and in May, the decline was only symbolically reduced.
However, already in June and July, the year-on-year decline rate was reduced to single digits, while in August the decline was almost symbolic.
Seasonally adjusted data for exports and imports in June and July were markedly higher, and in August they almost reached the level of the previous year’s average, according to the analysis.
Year-on-year growth in retail turnover
The situation in the turnover in retail trade was such that after the fall in April, a year-on-year increase was realized in May.
It was maintained for the next three months, but the maximum was recorded in June, while in July and August the increase was reduced to a level close to that in May.
The bulletin states that the data on investments are such that from some indicators it can be indirectly concluded that they are also recovering, but that others do not support such a conclusion.
Consumer prices increased in July compared to June, which is estimated to be inconsistent with seasonal characteristics and occurred for the first time in 12 years.
Unlike in July, the prices were reduced in August, so that the year-on-year increase in this month was lower than the maximum from July, RTS reports.
