The lowest rates of GDP decline, only 2%, are forecast for Serbia and Lithuania this year, according to the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW).
He presented his assumptions to the institute in a report in which he gives an overview of the impact of the corona crisis on transition economies and the chances for recovery. According to the expected dynamics of recovery, the Vienna Institute forecasts GDP growth for Serbia of 4.5 percent next year.
According to the forecasts of the Vienna Institute, Croatia’s GDP will “sink” 9.4 percent this year, which is more than in any other transition country, according to the Indeks.hr portal. A somewhat similar decline, nine percent, is forecast in Vienna only for Montenegro, while the abyss into which the corona crisis has pushed other transition economies will still be somewhat smaller.
The corona crisis has hit countries that depend on tourism particularly hard. For example, in the case of Slovenia, whose economy has also been brought to its knees by the corona crisis, the decline in GDP this year will amount to 6.7 percent at the Vienna Institute and 6.5 percent in Hungary.
Things should be radically reversed next year. With a projected GDP growth rate of five percent, Croatia should occupy the very top of the scale of transition countries in terms of the speed of recovery from the corona impact. The same growth rate in Vienna is forecast for Montenegro. Other countries in the region will recover at a slightly slower pace, so Slovenia and Serbia should achieve GDP growth of 4.5 percent, and Hungary of three percent.
According to these forecasts, Bulgaria should have the lowest growth rate of economic activity among the countries of Central and Southeast Europe in 2021, only 1.7 percent, B92 reports.
