Fitch Ratings has affirmed Serbia’s credit rating at BB+, while upgrading the country’s outlook from stable to positive, according to First Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Siniša Mali. Mali described this development as a significant milestone, reflecting Serbia’s economic achievements over the past decade and reinforcing its position on the European investment map.
The rating upgrade, he noted, signals Serbia’s progress towards achieving an investment-grade rating in the upcoming review early next year. Mali also highlighted that the Standard & Poor’s agency had similarly recognized Serbia’s positive prospects for obtaining an investment rating earlier this year.
These upgrades underline international recognition of Serbia’s advancements in economic policy and financial stability, which enhance the country’s global reputation. Mali pointed out that Serbia’s recent success in the international capital markets, including raising $1.5 billion through the issuance of “sustainable” bonds, reflects strong investor confidence in Serbia’s economy.
Serbia has experienced steady economic growth since the latter half of 2023, continuing into 2024. The real GDP grew by 4.7% in the first quarter of this year, with preliminary data for the second quarter indicating a growth of 4.2%. This growth has been driven by increased private consumption and investments, with gross fixed investments showing an 8% real growth.
Fitch’s forecast suggests a 3.8% economic growth rate for Serbia in 2024, with further increases expected in the following years due to successful infrastructure projects. The “Leap into the Future – Serbia 2027” initiative aims to sustain high levels of capital investments and boost private consumption through favorable labor market trends.
The Fitch report highlights Serbia’s high foreign direct investment levels, reduced public debt relative to GDP, disciplined fiscal policy, stable exchange rate and GDP per capita growth as key factors supporting the credit rating. The agency also noted Serbia’s resilience in managing macroeconomic risks related to the pandemic and energy crisis.
Fitch projects a decrease in Serbia’s public debt from 52.3% of GDP at the end of 2023 to 48.8% by the end of 2026, with a fiscal deficit of 2.5% anticipated for 2025 and 2026. The stable monetary policy and key economic reforms have helped maintain exchange rate stability and return inflation to the target range of 3% ±1.5% by May 2024, with expected further declines in inflation over the next few years.
Minister Mali concluded that these confirmations indicate long-term stability for Serbia’s economy and financial system, paving the way for further progress towards an investment rating. He expressed confidence that the next audit early next year will continue to reflect Serbia’s commitment to economic prosperity and financial stability.
