The authors of the expert magazine Macroeconomic Analyses and Trends (MAT) predict that inflation will reach 3.5 percent in the last month of this year. The editor of MAT, Ivan Nikolić, told Biznis.rs that it is almost certain that Serbia will enter the targeted inflation corridor by the end of the year.
The National Bank of Serbia targets inflation within the range of 1.5 to 4.5 percent, with a central target of three percent.
“Entering the targeted corridor could happen by mid-year, as it is expected that between the first and second quarters, we should see inflation of around five or six percent,” Nikolić stated.
As analysts at MAT point out, inflation in December 2023 decreased both on a monthly and a year-on-year basis.
“In November and December 2023, there was a monthly inflation of 0.5 percent and 0.1 percent, with year-on-year inflation of 8 percent and 7.6 percent, respectively. Thus, the reduction in year-on-year inflation that began in April 2023 continued in December 2023,” they highlight in the analysis.
Nikolić emphasizes that, if there are no new geopolitical disruptions, such as the current issues in the transportation of energy through the Red Sea, it is almost certain that MAT’s forecast for December of this year will be realized.
As highlighted by MAT analysts, at the end of last year, Serbia had a higher year-on-year inflation than the European Union average, and its year-on-year inflation was lower than only one EU member state – Czech Republic.
In November and December 2023, according to the harmonized index of consumer prices concept, the year-on-year inflation stood at 7.9 percent and 7.5 percent in Serbia, 3.1 percent and 3.4 percent in the European Union, and 8 percent and 7.6 percent in the Czech Republic.
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