How much do citizens know today about Serbian foreign policy? What are Serbia’s foreign policy interests? Where are they located, in the West or in the East? Where are our allies? Is it even necessary to declare whether Moscow, Beijing or Berlin, Brussels, Washington are closer to us? What every citizen who pays taxes should be interested in is the price of undefined foreign policy.
Just as nothing has been created in Serbia politically to last except crime and corruption, so in foreign policy we note a discontinuity in building alliances and recognizing our own interests. Foreign policy is always classified in the domain of high politics, and even when it is undefined, it is difficult for the ordinary reader to understand what our foreign policy is and why it is important. It not only defines who your allies are, in which international organizations you will be a member, who will give you more financial aid, but it also defines the internal political part that directly affects the life of every citizen.
It is a question of your choice – do you want to be organized as a Western European country or do you want a Russian, Chinese or some third model. Such a choice also determines whether we will be a prosperous, orderly society where we can live decently tomorrow, or whether we will be an Eastern despotism. The issue of belonging to the European Union or some other alliance has always been used here as a form of classification on one side or the other – for and against the EU, and less talk about choosing a better standard of living, better education, culture, jobs, easier travel and employment across the continent.
The current government continues to pursue a vague and uncoordinated foreign policy that has one clear goal in the eyes of observers – to get as much as possible from all (often globally opposed) sides, to claim a market in both East and West, to buy time to resolve relations with Kosovo and to confuse anyone who tries to understand what our foreign policy is. At one point, someone thought we were building an alliance with Russia, the next day a steel friendship with China, and the day after tomorrow Trump became a Serbian Orthodox. And so in a circle. In international relations, it is important to build alliances defined on clear principles, but when you start making promises on various sides that you cannot fulfill, then no one will take you seriously anymore. As in the business world and everyday life – if you arrange three meetings at the same time, you will get away with it once, maybe another time, but then no one will want to cooperate with you anymore because you are unreliable.
Although it has always been superficially closer to Russia over the years, Serbia is geographically, economically and culturally closer to the European continent to which it belongs. Domestically, it could be said that Serbia today resembles Russia, far more than a consolidated Western European democracy. That is the price of the absence of the vision of Serbia as an organized European state, which we pay because the Serbian authorities would like us to be part of the West economically, and to look like Putin’s Russia politically. It is not possible to develop the economy in the long run and improve the living standard of citizens, if you do not regulate the economic environment so that there is an efficient judiciary, prosecutor’s office and clear rules of the game under the auspices of institutions.
Russia has been given a privileged status in the Serbian public since 2008 due to its side with Serbia and its interests after the unanimous declaration of independence of Kosovo, but it has never been seen how much that support cost Serbia. Russia would not have sided with Serbia if it had not recognized its
interests, which is quite normal in international relations. Russia’s main interest in the region has been and remains the status quo, as only unresolved bilateral issues are a guarantee that NATO will not expand further. That is the only red line for Russia, while the issue of EU membership is far less important for it. Russian influence is often talked about and written about, it undoubtedly exists as well as the influences of other countries, but that influence has its clear limits – geographical, economic and cultural. As much as some overestimate it, so much others underestimate it, but the biggest obstacle to Russian influence is the lack of a strategy – what does Russia want to achieve in the Balkans other than maintaining the status quo?
Meanwhile, the region’s foreign policy is getting closer to alliances in the West, and the main question today is whether relations between Moscow, Belgrade and Washington have changed since the signing of the agreement in Washington between Serbia and Kosovo. The impression is that the relations between Moscow and Belgrade began to change drastically at the end of last year during the “Russian spy” affair, when Russia was first condemned and criticized by the Serbian tabloids, which are under the editorial staff of the government. This was the beginning of a change in the narrative of the Serbian authorities towards Russia, using their tabloids, to continue during the corona of the crisis, when almost no one mentioned Russia in the context of foreign aid as China. In addition, Russia’s “deep state” is accused of being involved in protests against the authorities in Belgrade.
The politically tumultuous summer continued with the signing of the agreement in the White House, to which Marija Zaharova (spokeswoman for the ICJ of Russia) reacted with an inappropriate announcement. Serbia’s foreign policy harmonization with the EU continued with the signing of the EU declaration on the presidential elections in Belarus, in which Brussels refused to recognize the results of the voting and condemned the violence against the protesters. The cancellation of the military exercise with Russia and Belarus followed, under the pretext that Serbia was canceling all military exercises in the next six months, although no other exercise was planned except this one. All these are individual signals that indicate that the relations between Moscow and Belgrade are not as close as they were in previous years, and the change of the narrative of the domestic press is the best evidence of that. Instead of glorifying Russia, today we have sporadic accusations by the tabloids that Russia or certain pro-Russian structures are interfering in the internal politics of Serbia.
The Russian press has been writing very critically about Serbian President Vucic for two years now, and some describe him as a Western man. Moscow has nothing to offer economically to our region, while the most important thing for Serbia is to continue with the economic strengthening of ties in the region and with the EU, with which it has the largest trade. As the relations between Belgrade and Pristina are normalized under the influence of America through numerous economic projects, so will the Russian political influence weaken more and more. This does not mean that Serbia should have bad or cold relations with Russia, but that they should be based on what is possible in the given circumstances. Russia’s foreign policy is one of the most serious, so the Russians know what their foreign policy achievements are in this region. Russia may try to find new political partners in Serbia in the coming period, some are already profiling themselves as close to Moscow, but none of them has the capacity to succeed as long as Serbia is economically tied to its partners in the West, Talas reports.
