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GDP Performance in Q3 2023

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During the third quarter of 2023, the real GDP exhibited a robust growth of 3.6% compared to the corresponding period in the previous year. Moreover, seasonally adjusted data unveiled a notable 1.3% increase in GDP compared to the previous quarter. Key sectors driving this growth included construction (12.8%), agriculture (9.5%), industry (3.4%), and information and communication (6.3%). These sectors collectively contributed to the positive momentum observed throughout the first three quarters of the year.

Aggregate Expenditure Analysis

Examining aggregate expenditure trends in Q3 2023 reveals growth in various segments. Household final consumption expenditure saw a 1.3% increase, while final consumption expenditure of nonprofit institutions serving households rose by 2.7%. Government final consumption expenditure also saw a moderate increase of 1.7%, along with a notable 4.1% growth in gross fixed capital formation. However, the period witnessed a decline in both exports (1.5%) and imports (1.2%) of goods and services.

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Republic of Serbia’s Budget Update

In November 2023, the Republic of Serbia’s budget reported a deficit of 41,467.0 million RSD, marking a substantial improvement of 64,879.8 million RSD compared to the same month in 2022. Real revenues surged by 10.3%, whereas real expenditures contracted by 22.0% year-on-year.

Revenue Insights

Almost all revenue categories exhibited positive growth, with significant increases noted in taxes on value added, non-tax revenues, and donations, posting growth rates of 15.0%, 11.9%, and 184.9%, respectively. Conversely, expenditure reductions were most pronounced in budgetary loan outlays, purchases of goods and services, and other current expenses, declining by 99.3%, 27.5%, and 42.2%, respectively.

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Monthly Performance Highlights

Total budget revenues in November 2023 amounted to 163,856.6 million RSD, down by 9,043.8 million RSD compared to the previous month, with a 5.7% decrease primarily attributed to declines in excise duties, customs duties, value-added tax, and other tax revenues.

Expenditure Dynamics

Total budget expenditures for the same period totaled 205,323.6 million RSD, reflecting an increase of 40,146.0 million RSD from the previous month. Real expenditures rose by 23.7%, predominantly due to surges in capital expenditure, transfers to mandatory social security organizations, and subsidies.

Year-to-Date Performance Summary

For the January-November 2023 period, a deficit of 47,107.0 million RSD was recorded, showcasing a notable improvement of 33,848.6 million RSD compared to the same period in 2022. Despite a slight decrease of 0.2% in total revenues, total expenditures decreased by 2.7%. Positive growth rates were particularly evident in subsidies, interest payment expenditures, and capital expenditures, mitigating the overall decline in budgetary expenditures during this period.

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