In November 2023, the value of retail trade turnover surpassed that of the same month in the previous year by 9.7%. However, inflation partially offset this increase, resulting in a real turnover growth of 3.6%. As previously forecasted, we anticipated a return to positive year-on-year real turnover in November due to inflation slowing down.
Year-to-Date Comparison
Despite this improvement, comparing the first eleven months of 2023 with the same period in 2022 reveals a continued 2.7% decline in real retail trade turnover. Notably, in October and November 2023, the real turnover index finally exceeded the average value from the previous year, signaling a positive trend.
European Context
While inflation remains lower in certain European countries, many are experiencing sharper declines in citizen standards. In October, the eurozone saw a 1.1% year-on-year decrease in real retail trade turnover. Notable declines were observed in Slovenia (11.1%), Estonia (8.8%), Belgium (3.1%), and Germany and Austria (2.4% and 2.3% respectively).
Sectoral Analysis
Looking at turnover by basic activity classifications, the period from January to November 2023 saw nominal declines in the value of motor fuel turnover (-4.5%). In constant prices, significant declines were recorded in the turnover of food, beverages, tobacco, and non-food products excluding motor fuels, ranging between 2% and 4%. However, in November 2023, real turnover of motor fuels remained below the November 2022 levels, while food, beverage, and tobacco turnover increased by 3.1%, and non-food product turnover surged by 6.3%.
Wage Dynamics
The average gross wage for October 2023 stood at 119,791 dinars, with the average net wage (excluding taxes and contributions) at 86,738 dinars. Comparing January-October 2023 with the same period in the previous year, nominal gross and net wages increased by 15.0% and 1.4% respectively. Additionally, compared to October of the previous year, average gross and net wages for October 2023 rose nominally by 15.1% and 6.1% respectively. The slowdown in inflation has positively impacted the year-on-year calculation of real wages, while the high nominal wage growth is attributed to non-public sector employee earnings.
Median Wage
The median net wage for October 2023 was 67,124 dinars, indicating that 50% of employees earned wages up to this amount. With the improving dynamics of average wages and lower year-on-year inflation, the indicator of average wage coverage of the average and minimum consumer baskets by the average wage is also improving.
Despite the challenges faced throughout the year, it is possible that both indicators will reach their highest recorded levels in December 2023.
