In November 2023, there was a rise in monthly inflation, but a decline was observed in year-over-year inflation. Monthly inflation rates of 0.3% and 0.5% were recorded in October and November 2023, while year-over-year rates stood at 8.5% and 8.0%, respectively. This marked a continuation of the downward trend in year-over-year inflation that began in April of the same year.
The increase in November’s monthly inflation was primarily driven by temporary factors, with the non-core component experiencing an uptick despite a decrease in the core component. Specifically, while the core inflation decreased from 0.5% in October to 0.4% in November 2023, the non-core inflation rose from 0.1% to 0.6% during the same period. Notably, the surge in household energy prices played a significant role in driving up monthly inflation in November. Energy costs for households increased by 0.3% in October and spiked by 4.1% in November 2023, attributed to a 7.3% increase in electricity prices after a prolonged period of stability.
Conversely, year-over-year inflation decreased in November 2023, primarily due to temporary factors causing a sharper decline in the non-core component compared to the core component. In October and November 2023, non-core inflation rates were 9.5% and 8.9%, respectively, while core inflation rates were 7.3% and 7.0%. Among the components contributing to non-core inflation, only food prices exhibited a lower year-over-year growth rate in November compared to October 2023, with increases of 10.5% and 9.3%, respectively.
The decline in year-over-year inflation in November, compared to October 2023, was influenced by changes in the structure of the consumer basket. Notably, there was an increase in the share of items with a year-over-year price decline below the lower target boundary, as well as those with a price increase within target boundaries. Conversely, the share of items with a price increase above the upper target boundary decreased slightly.
Overall, while Serbia experienced higher year-over-year inflation compared to the European Union average in both October and November 2023, it remained lower than that of several EU member states. This underscores the complex dynamics influencing inflation trends in the region.
