The growth of Serbia’s gross domestic product (GDP) this year will be between 2.3 and 2.4 percent, which is approximately the same as last year’s rate of 2.5 percent, said Milojko Arsić, a professor at the Faculty of Economics, today.
He stated during the presentation of the new issue of the “Quarterly Monitor of Economic Trends and Policies” that the main trends in the Serbian economy in 2023 are declining inflation, moderate economic recovery, and a reduction in the trade deficit.
“The basic trends are similar to those achieved in European countries, with the difference that inflation in Serbia is higher, and GDP growth is faster,” Arsić said.
The growth of economic activities this year has been significantly contributed to, as he stated, by one-time factors such as the recovery of agriculture from last year’s drought, strong growth in electricity production due to resolving issues in the Electric Power Industry of Serbia (EPS), an extremely favorable hydrological situation, and high growth in construction.
It is estimated, as he mentioned, that the collective impact of one-time factors on the economic growth this year amounted to about one percentage point, which means that without them, economic growth of around 1.5 percent would have been achieved.
Arsić stated that the forecast for the economic activity growth in 2024 is around three percent, which represents a relatively small increase compared to this year’s growth, but it is significant considering that one-time factors from this year cannot be counted on.
According to him, the acceleration of GDP growth in the next year will be influenced by the growth of real incomes due to lowering inflation and the expected mild recovery of European economies, while high interest rates will affect the slowdown of economic growth.
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