Today, the state pays the minimum for more than a million employees, and that will be the last round of state aid for the economy. In the previous days, on several occasions, it could be heard from Nemanjina 11 that the state does not plan to go with an additional support package, and the Ministry of Finance received an official message that it is difficult, but that the economy has no choice but to adapt to new circumstances.
When it was said publicly the other day and for the first time that the state does not have the money for additional relief, businessmen knew that an even harder autumn was coming than they expected. The last minimum they will receive today will be the last financial injection that kept many alive for the previous three months. Now, loans have started to come in, so the question is what will happen from September.
“Those who received the minimum, they will have to maintain employment until the fall, but after that there will be big layoffs. From July, September, October, November, ie the end of the year will be more problematic because then the real consequences of the crisis will be seen,” said Zoran Drakulic for Blic Business.
He added that the recovery will certainly take two to three years.
“I even think that 2021 will be problematic and difficult. It will not be easy. It is all a question of when we will find the vaccine and when we will get out of everything, when the borders will open, when tourism will start working, economy, aviation industry… It will all take time. Unfortunately, this will be a deep crisis,” says Drakulic.
The Minister of Finance, Sinisa Mali, also assessed that great challenges are ahead of us, because it is difficult to estimate how long the health crisis will last.
“Thus, it is not just a liquidity crisis that is at work. We will see what autumn and the coming period bring. The economy has no choice but to adapt to the new circumstances. We must find a way to function in the new system imposed by the changed circumstances on the international market. Difficulty, but flexibility in business, innovative ideas and knowledge, are the only ones that lead human civilization forward,” said Mali.
Economists of the Quarterly Monitor estimate that the dismissal of workers can be expected primarily in activities that produce durable consumer goods, capital products, as well as non-existent services, such as tourism.
The authors of the analysis expect that the recovery in demand for these products will be gradual and that it will probably take a year for demand to return to pre-crisis levels.
In May, according to the records of the National Employment Service, more than 3,000 people applied to the bureau. From March 16, when the state of emergency was introduced until the end of June, the number of citizens at the bureau has increased by 10,800, Blic Business reports.
