How December elections story will end up
Beginning of 2024 found Serbia in political crisis due to the dispute over December elections results. This post-election crisis even is not recognized by the government does not recognize, while the opposition does not know how to deal with it. A day and a half before the New Year, hunger strikes and protests in front of the headquarters of the Republic Election Commission were stopped. Some new protests have been announced after the New Year holidays. But no one knows when, how and where it will be organized.
There will certainly be new protests at some point, but there will also be the formation of a new convocation of the Assembly of Serbia, the Assembly of Vojvodina and local parliaments, including the Assembly of the City of Belgrade, and this will lead to the first concrete problem in 2024. The opposition, gathered around the “Serbia against violence” list, is thinking about not accepting mandates in the Belgrade Assembly, and there is no unified position on the issue of republican parliamentary mandates. If there was election theft, it was on all levels of the election process. In case of accepting mandates, the opposition would give legitimacy to those elections and that is why there is dilemma regarding the continuation of the protests.
When the Republican Election Commission announces the final results of parliamentary elections, the National Assembly has 30 days to hold a constitutive session. The legal term for the election of the prime minister and his cabinet is three months from the day when the parliament was constituted. The first step in that process represents the formal consultations of the president of Serbia with the representatives of all parliamentary groups.
This means that we could get a new government only in the spring, when regular local elections in 44 municipalities are scheduled.
With more than half the number of mandates won (128 out of 250) in the republican parliament, the Serbian Progressive Party (abbreviation in Serbian SNS) would have an open way to form another government – the eight since coming to power in 2012.
Serbia, unlike previous election processes, could get a new government much faster than anyone hopes. After all, this was also announced by Vučić when he said that the new government will be formed in February. Vučić needs that new government as soon as possible, not only because of the functioning of the full capacity of the government in the continuation of the negotiations with Kosovo. Another reason is that he has a huge ambition to start spending money for Expo 2027 as soon as possible. The President of Serbia has already managed to raise the price, which he has tentatively estimated at 12 billion euros. Now that price has already risen to 15 billion. For example, France announced that only 4.4 billion euros will be spent on the Olympic Games in Paris this year, including 154 million in contingency reserves!
When it comes to the constituent session of the Belgrade City Assembly, it is questionable whether it will be successful considering that if two thirds of the future city councilors are not present at that session, the President of Serbia will take advantage of that situation and allow new elections In Belgrade. The excuse will not be election theft, but the situation in which the election results are even, i.e. that it is impossible to achieve a majority to form the government.
In addition to the fact that the second-placed coalition “Serbia against violence” claims that there was “the most obvious election theft” in Belgrade and does not recognize the results, neither the SNS with its coalition partners, nor the opposition lists have a sufficient number of mandates to form the government. Whether there will be repeated elections depends, first of all, on the right-wing pro-Russian list “Mi – glas iz naroda”, headed by Dr. Branimir Nestorović, known for his conspiracy theories. For the first time, they enter the Belgrade assembly with six councilors.
The mayor of Belgrade in his technical mandate, Aleksandar Šapić, announces that he will invite everyone to the talks about the formation of the government in the capital. He added that whoever reaches 56 councilors (out of 110 in the Belgrade assembly) has the opportunity to form the government, and pointed out that this is defined by the Constitution and the law. “If there is no majority, we will go to new elections, the crown will not fall from my head”, he said.
Kosovo and Metohija Issue i.e. Serbia and the EU relations
On the first day of 2024, the decision of the Government of Serbia to recognize Kosovo car plates entered into force. This step can be described as one problem less in the relations between Belgrade and Priština, because the dispute over license plates in the previous period caused a series of crises in the north of Kosovo – from protests and barricades, to the exit of Serbs from Kosovo institutions.
However, problems remain. Namely, Serbia is facing with the international community’s request to investigate and punish responsible for September 2023 armed attack which took place in the village of Banjska in the north of Kosovo. This has been repeatedly emphasized by officials of the European Union and the United States. The EU and the US reiterate that everything agreed in Brussels and Ohrid in February and March 2023 must be fulfilled without delay or preconditions.
In Article 4 of the Agreement on the Path to Normalization of Relations between Kosovo and Serbia, namely, it is said that “Serbia will not oppose Kosovo’s membership in any international organization”, therefore also in the United Nations, which is why this agreement remained unsigned by Belgrade in the first place. When some of the media, after having insight into the draft of the EU conclusions on Serbia, announced that the European Council will ask the European Commission to supplement the criteria for Chapter 35 in Serbia’s membership negotiations with the provisions of the aforementioned agreements before the end of January 2024, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić said is that this will clearly mean that “the EU does not want Serbia. If you put Kosovo’s membership in the UN as part of Chapter 35, then it’s clear that you don’t want Serbia. I don’t believe it’s possible and I don’t think they’ll make such a decision,” said the President of Serbia.
There are dark assumptions that as soon as the Government is formed, there will be pressure on the Kosovo agenda like never before, because it is obvious that the West is losing its patience on this issue. Taking into account the December elections results, no matter how controversial they are, it is not impossible to see Vučić allowing himself to do something unthinkable but still something what West is expected of him regarding Kosovo. Time will tell if the recognition of so called Kosovo car plates is first move following that direction.
Not only due to Kosovo and Metohija issue, in 2024 Serbia will still remain far from joining the EU. The European Union is in crisis, and its member states are significantly divided. Besides constant influx of migrants, the EU is suffering due to the war in Ukraine, coping with right wing populist movements and, in that light, no one should blame the EU for not welcoming new members. Especially when there are many political analysts believe that the EU must be seriously reformed from within before accepting new members. When Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission President announced in November 2023 the Enlargement Package, she avoided any mention that the EU must face its shortcomings before expanding its borders. In addition to foreign policy, another challenge facing the EU as it considers further enlargement is how to deal with its internal weaknesses in the rule of law and corruption.
Particularly interesting is the stance of French member of European Parliament EP from the far-right “National Gathering”, Mr. Jean-Len Lacapelle. He said that the European Union “doesn’t forgive Serbia anything”, and that it is not the Union’s job to interfere in Serbia’s internal affairs. In his opinion, Serbia have to stay free country and not to follow the opinion of the EU which mission is to make all countries to be the same. Each country has the right to its own opinion, said Lacapelle.
From the other hand, there are those who think that, having in mind Russian war against Ukraine the admission of new countries should be accelerated because of the danger of growing Russian influence in order to “save” these countries from Russians. But “problem” with Serbia is that, unlike Ukraine, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Moldova, Georgia, it doesn’t perceive Russia as a threat. Although regularly invited by the EU to impose sanctions to Russia, Serbia is repeatedly refusing to do that. Therefore, it is completely clear that for Serbia there will be no move forward in its European path.
In addition to Kosovo, Belgrade will also have problem in relations with the EU because of Milorad Dodik and his announcement of the declaration of Republika Srpska as independent from Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). Namely, Dodik said “if the bad position of the Republika Srpska within BiH continues, no one should rule out thinking that this entity will protect its rights”. This issue could bring Serbian Government much bigger problems than the negotiations over Kosovo, because it could result in a more serious conflict in the region.
Serbia and China
Relations with People’s Republic of China are among top priorities of Serbian foreign policy. On the political level, two countries respect each other’s sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity and support each other in matters of vital interest. All these elements represent firm basis for further deepening of mutual political trust.
Chinese-Serbian relations have a wide scope for development, and the two sides have a deep traditional friendship, a solid basis for cooperation, as well as determination and confidence to continuously improve the relations between the two countries. On the economic and trade front, the two countries enjoy enormous potential and a bright future. In favor of that speaks last year signed the Agreement on Free Trade between Serbia and China which three days only after signing was approved by Serbian Parliament. As explained, reason stemmed from the intention of the Agreement signatories to deepen trade and economic cooperation between the two countries, as well as to further intensify and diversifies their mutual trade based on the principles of equality, mutual interests and international law.
The goal of concluding the Agreement on Free Trade with the PRC is enabling preferential access to the Chinese market for Serbian products, which in addition to balancing the trade, i.e. reducing it the existing foreign trade deficit and the increase in the coverage of exports by imports, expects a simultaneous expansion of investment and production capacities in Serbia, and the strengthening of the overall economic activity.
The agreement is an opportunity for Serbia, not only in terms of foreign trade, but also investment. Given that it is known that Serbia has a free trade agreement with the EU, with the region, with the Eurasian Community, with Turkey, and now with China, it is an opportunity for big players, companies that already have business operations in Serbia, but also those who plan to start business to use the agreement in order to more easily reach the Chinese market. On the other hand, it is also an opportunity for Chinese investors to reach Europe in an easier manner. There is no reason to doubt that trade exchange between Serbia and China will continue to grow in spite of unfavorable developments in world economy. This optimism has foundation in fact that in 2022 Serbia and China achieved an exchange worth almost 6 billion euros, while in first ten months of 2023 the value of the exchange between the two countries amounted to almost 5 billion euros.
Given to the current state of international affairs, there is no doubt that in 2024 Serbian-Chinese cooperation may suffer the consequences of implementing Western “containment” policy over China, no matter to the fact that the overall European economy is significantly more dependent on cooperation with China than it was on Russian energy sources. That such scenario is very realistic confirms the European Commission Progress Report on Serbia. It was underlined that Member States must be able to conduct political dialogues under the EU foreign, security and defence policy, align with EU statements, take part in EU actions, and to apply agreed sanctions and restrictive measures. In that respect, having free visa entry policy with China, maintaining high level relations with Russian Federation, signing the Free Trade Agreement with China – all of that represent serious strategic concerns. This type of reaction is following constant double standard policy of the European Union which is deeply interested in protecting its own interest, but at the same time eager to object if some other party does the same.
Source: China Cee
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