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The surplus from agricultural exports is thinning

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Farmers ended 2022 with a decline in production, exports and foreign trade surplus, while agricultural products rose in price by a third compared to 2021. This year, official statistics record an increase in production, but the surplus in foreign trade is still shrinking. Opinions about how this year’s agricultural season will end differ, but current events indicate that the problem is not only in quantities, but also in the quality of the yields achieved.

Domestic agriculture ended “dry” in 2022. According to the data of the Republic Institute of Statistics (RZS), the volume of production was lower by 8%, exports by 4.4%, while the surplus in the foreign trade exchange of agricultural products fell by almost 11%, to 1.6 billion euros.

The previous year was marked by one of the biggest droughts in the past decade and an increase in the prices of raw materials for primary agricultural production, which had a chain effect on the price increases of agricultural and food products.

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The prices of reproduction material have jumped by almost 28% in a year. Fertilizer (109%), followed by seeds (38%), plant protection products (26%) and animal feed (18%) went up in price the most, while the prices of energy for primary production were 13% higher. As a result, agricultural products were more expensive by a third compared to 2021, most notably cereals (33.5%), livestock and poultry (26.9%) and livestock products (32.5%).

Due to bad weather conditions, corn and soybeans failed, while sunflower and wheat fared somewhat better, but their yields per hectare were also below the multi-year average.

In the previous year, prices skyrocketed primarily due to rising input prices, inflation and disruptions caused by Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Prices on the world market had a sharp jump in March, so the Government of Serbia temporarily banned the export of certain foodstuffs, including wheat, corn and flour. This caused the indignation of farmers, millers and grain exporters, while livestock farmers welcomed this measure, due to major problems caused by shortages and a drastic increase in the price of animal feed.

Despite the bans and restrictions, Serbia managed to export more than a million tons of wheat in 2022, and in foreign trade, fruit and vegetables led the way, accounting for almost a quarter of the total export of domestic agriculture. However, the export of fruit fell by 14% on an annual basis, but due to higher prices, the value increased by 3%, to 851.1 million euros. Serbia earned the most from the export of frozen raspberries, as much as 353.5 million euros, which accounted for 41.5% of the total value of fruit exports, and in second place was fresh apples with 100.2 million euros.

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