Huge doses of vaccines have been announced, which, although they are not arriving at the promised pace, should contribute to the suppression of the pandemic in the first half of the year. New capital investments, increase in salaries in the public sector, pensions, new employment are planned. It is claimed that we will achieve high GDP growth, we will be the best in Europe, so that the budget deficit and the growing public debt will not be a problem. At least that’s what they say. But what do those who generate income for themselves and the state think about the possibilities in the next year? What are their business plans, how many scars did they get out of the previous year and do they hope to recover in the new one? We asked businessmen what they expect the Government to do to make their business easier, what will be the situation on the world market and how much will the consequences of the pandemic affect the domestic business environment?
Dragoljub Vukadinovic, President of Metalac Group
I am not afraid because of doing business this year, Metalac is able to adapt to new conditions and come out with the least scars. We have been on the market for a long time, we have been adapting since the 90s, since the time of hyperinflation, war, sanctions… I think the company has a good team, we are able to react very quickly, to find a solution not always epochal but we managed to maintain the company. In the plan for this year, we started from the fact that the first six months will be approximately the same as the last half of last year. We expect problems due to Covid, that about 25 percent of workers will be absent from us every day, which was an average last year that we compensated with overtime work. But I can’t say I’m dissatisfied. We have maintained liquidity, we pay salaries regularly, we have made some profit, in the last six months, customers from Germany, America, England, Russia, who withdrew in the first half of the year, have returned to us. We anticipate somewhat more serious planning in the second half of 2021, when I believe that we will be able to count on some development, bigger ventures on the domestic and foreign markets. I do not expect any greater help from the state, I think there is no possibility, but if the scope of the corona is the same as in the last three months, we should consider reprogramming the taxes and contributions on salaries that were postponed last year.
Branko Greganovic, President of the Executive Board of NLB Bank
After one year that is specific in every sense, I really believe that 2021 will be better, happier and more successful for all of us. I am proud of my team because of everything we managed to do this year, and I hope that in the next year we will be able to return to normal life and business, which is the most important New Year’s wish for everyone. After the acquisition of Komercijalna Banka by the NLB Group, NLB Bank will have a year of hard work on the integration of two banks on the one hand and efficient customer service on the other, many professional challenges that we will be able to respond to. We will certainly have to think of new ways to support our clients, especially in this still unstable period, in order to best meet their needs, especially when it comes to those who have most felt the effects of the crisis caused by the pandemic. We approach this issue responsibly, not only in business activities, but also in projects in the field of social responsibility, with which we want to support the community in which we operate.
Sinisa Krneta, director of the Belgrade Stock Exchange
Our expectations are very specific and everything we did in 2020 in the given circumstances, we did with the idea of getting Covid out of the prism. We have largely dedicated 2020 to strategic issues and key strategic moves that I believe will be a big surprise for our market. For the Belgrade Stock Exchange, 2021 will be a turning point, having in mind the hard work and deep changes that we carried out in 2020, using the corona pandemic.
Strategic changes are twofold. On the one hand, they concern regulations, and on the other hand, the improvement of the business capacities of the Stock Exchange. Given the sensitivity of matter, I couldn’t say more at this point.
Milan Knezevic, businessman
Economic trends in the New Year will be determined by the consequences of the pandemic, which will be manifested through the dismissal of workers and the temporary and permanent closure of companies. It was naive to believe that the pandemic has the characteristics of a weather disaster and that everything will be the same as before when the crisis passes. Most small entrepreneurs operate on the principle: monthly income equals monthly expenses and if something is earned at all. The fate of small businesses is shared by complete families. Entrepreneurs are responsible for their business with private property, which further complicates the situation. If there is no business activity for only a few days, entrepreneurs cannot rehabilitate the business. The crisis will not pass so easily, and the rehabilitation of the consequences of the pandemic will take at least two years.
The economy enters the New Year exhausted and burdened with huge financial obligations. Tax credits are arriving for collection, demand is falling rapidly in a large number of sectors. The winter season is more expensive for heating costs, which represents additional pressure for the economy. It is economically inappropriate to talk about the consequences of a pandemic as long as it lasts. It is certain that the layoffs will be significantly higher and that a huge number of entrepreneurs will decide to close their business not only because of the current consequences but also because of the huge business uncertainty in the next two years. It is pointless to stimulate businessmen to borrow when there is no economic activity. It’s as if someone is offering you material to paint the cabins of a torpedo boat.
I think there is less and less power to repair the ship.
Velimir Gavrilovic, director of Energia Gas and Power
The energy transition will continue even more intensively in the New Year. The decommissioning of thermal power plants will continue throughout Europe. New renewable energy sources, which have already been built, will start producing electricity. Investment in wind farms, solar power plants and other renewable energy sources will continue. The citizens of European countries do not want to breathe polluted air and are ready for this energy transition. Serbia and the surrounding countries are late in that. Moreover, some retrograde moves are being made, such as the construction of new thermal power plants in Serbia (Kostolac B3), which are the biggest air pollutants. In the end, the taxpayers will pay the bill for such endeavors, by increasing the costs of the health system. Also, the European Union will try to introduce export, “CO2 taxes” for goods that are produced in Serbia using electricity from dirty technologies, so Serbian goods will be uncompetitive on the EU markets. If we do not enter the energy transition thoughtfully and quickly, both citizens and the economy will suffer.
Goran Rodic, Vice President of the Construction Chamber of Serbia
The state promised the domestic operative that it will have a significant role in construction projects that should be realized by 2025. Accordingly, in the coming year, I expect the state, as the largest investor, to assign the role of the main contractor to domestic operations in all major construction projects that it will finance. Only such an approach will enable the survival of the Serbian construction industry, and domestic operations are of great importance for the functioning of every state. If the domestic construction industry gets jobs, it will enable it to make a profit from which it will pay taxes to the state, regular salaries to employees and, most importantly, employ new labor. The stable position of the Serbian construction industry will keep the staff we are training in the country, and we know that they are now going abroad for bread, where they have better salaries and working conditions.
Toplica Spasojevic, President of ITM Sistem
I expect that economic activity in Serbia will return to the level of 2019 next year. In the first quarter, there may be problems like the ones from this year, but in the second, third and fourth quarters, economic growth will be recorded. The economy in Serbia is not so much related to events abroad, so that will be one of the reasons for the quick recovery. When I say that, I primarily mean the sectors in which I do business, and that is agriculture and energy. These are sectors in which the state plays an important role and the corona virus epidemic has not done as much damage as in some other areas such as hospitality, catering, tourism and so on. That is why I expect economic growth in the agricultural and energy sector next year, Danas reports.
