The gradual recovery of economic activity in Serbia began in May, but the deterioration in the labor market will continue throughout the second half of this year, and probably in part in 2021, and will primarily include the formal labor market, according to the latest issue of the Quarterly Monitor.
More intensive layoffs in the private sector, which will harmonize employment with the scope of economic activity, will begin after the end of the minimum payment program (end of October this year, journalist), according to a bulletin issued by the Faculty of Economics and the Foundation for Economic Science Development).
Dismissal of workers can be expected primarily in activities that produce durable consumer goods, capital products as well as non-existent services, such as tourism and similar.
The authors of the analysis expect that the recovery in demand for these products will be gradual and it will probably take a year for demand to return to pre-crisis levels.
The dismissal of workers in the formal sector and the loss of part of informal jobs will affect the growth of the unemployment rate in this and next year.
The growth of the unemployment rate will be influenced by the rest of the workers who returned to Serbia at the beginning of the pandemic, and who worked abroad in activities whose recovery will be slow (tourism, catering, production of non-existent products, etc.).
Since a bad GDP rate of one percentage point leads to an increase in unemployment of 02-04 percentage points, and an economic decline of three percent is predicted, it can be expected that the unemployment rate will average around 12.5 percent this year, and at the end of this year and the beginning of the next 13-14 percent, Nova Ekonomija reports.
