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Inflation between 6.4% and 9.0% is expected

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Representatives of the financial sector expect inflation to be 7.0 percent in August 2024, according to the results of the Ipsos survey, the National Bank of Serbia announced and stated that according to the results of the latest, September Bloomberg survey, expectations are even lower and amount to 6. 4 percent.

The short-term inflation expectations of businessmen, for one year ahead, in the previous three months continuously decreased, so compared to May, when they amounted to 10.0 percent, in August they decreased by one percentage point and amounted to 9.0 percent.

When it comes to inflation expectations for two and three years in advance, they are lower than short-term expectations for both the financial sector and the economy.

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Thus, the expectations of the financial sector for two years ahead decreased from 5.0 percent in July to 4.5 percent in August, and the expectations for three years ahead from 3.8 percent to 3.5 percent, so that for both periods they are within the limits of the goal of the National Bank of Serbia.

As for the mid-term expectations of businessmen, the expectations for two years ahead were slightly reduced from 6.2 percent in July to 6.0 percent in August, while for three years ahead they are at the level of 5.0 percent and in July they were 4.8 percent.

According to the NBS, the results of the survey, which refer to two and three years ahead, indicate that both the financial sector and the economy expect the easing of inflationary pressures in the coming period and a gradual return of inflation to the target limits in the medium term.

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