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Serbian banks 4Q10 results a positive surprise, Romanian banks disappointed

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After 80% of our CEE bank coverage has reported 4Q10 results, we can say that the Polish, Czech and Serbian banks came in better than expected, whereas the Romanian banks disappointed. The strongest outperformance of our forecasts we saw at AIK Banka (+36%), followed by BZ WBK (+25%), BRE Bank (+19%), Komercijalna Banka (11%), PKO BP (9%) and Komercni banka (+4%).

The main reasons in general were lower than expected provisioning (or even positive net provisions in the case of AIK), as well as better than expected sustainable income sources (except AIK). On the other hand, Romania’s BRD GSG came in with a 4Q10 bottom line that was 76% below expectations, mainly due to higher provisioning and a lower trading result.

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Banca Transilvania was 45% below our estimates, mainly due to a weak trading result and despite lower than expected provisioning. OTP’s operating performance was in line with our estimates, whereas the reported bottom line came in 36% below our forecasts. In general, we saw a stabilization or further improvement of the asset quality in core Central Europe (PL, CZ), whereas SEE deteriorated further. This confirms our expectations for the CEE region in 2011.


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