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The financial sector expects inflation to reach 5% by the end of the year

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According to the Ipsos agency’s survey results, representatives of the financial sector expect that inflation for the next year, in December 2024, will be at the level of 5%. This represents a decrease compared to the previous survey and is significantly lower than in the first half of 2023, where expectations were around 8%, as stated by the National Bank of Serbia (NBS).

In the latest January survey, inflation expectations for one year ahead, i.e., for January 2025, are 4.3%, within the target range set by the National Bank of Serbia.

After being reduced from 9% to 7% in the November survey, business expectations for inflation one year ahead remained unchanged in December.

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Regarding inflation expectations for two and three years ahead, they are lower both in the financial sector and in the economy compared to short-term expectations. Financial sector expectations for two years ahead in December were slightly lower (4%) than in November (4.2%), and inflation expectations for three years ahead decreased to 3.4% (compared to 3.5% in November).

The NBS states that medium-term inflation expectations for both periods continue to move within the target range set by the central bank.

Businesses’ medium-term expectations for both periods are at 5%, after expectations for two years ahead were reduced from 6% in November, while expectations for three years ahead remained unchanged.

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