According to the Ipsos agency’s survey results, representatives of the financial sector expect that inflation for the next year, in December 2024, will be at the level of 5%. This represents a decrease compared to the previous survey and is significantly lower than in the first half of 2023, where expectations were around 8%, as stated by the National Bank of Serbia (NBS).
In the latest January survey, inflation expectations for one year ahead, i.e., for January 2025, are 4.3%, within the target range set by the National Bank of Serbia.
After being reduced from 9% to 7% in the November survey, business expectations for inflation one year ahead remained unchanged in December.
Regarding inflation expectations for two and three years ahead, they are lower both in the financial sector and in the economy compared to short-term expectations. Financial sector expectations for two years ahead in December were slightly lower (4%) than in November (4.2%), and inflation expectations for three years ahead decreased to 3.4% (compared to 3.5% in November).
The NBS states that medium-term inflation expectations for both periods continue to move within the target range set by the central bank.
Businesses’ medium-term expectations for both periods are at 5%, after expectations for two years ahead were reduced from 6% in November, while expectations for three years ahead remained unchanged.
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