The economic growth of Serbia in this year will be up to 3.5%, while inflation will slow down in this year; however, it is insufficient to reach the average of European countries. This was concluded at the panel discussion “Macroeconomic Trends in 2024,” organized by NALED’s Alliance for Fair Competition with the support of the National Initiative for Cashless Payments “A Better Way.”
The event was opened by Zoran Daljević, President of the Alliance for Fair Competition and General Manager of the Atlantic Group in Serbia, with a message that in the light of the global crisis, the implementation of measures from the new Program to Combat the Shadow Economy becomes increasingly important to support responsible business. He also noted that the growth of cashless transactions is one of the main measures in the fight against the shadow economy.
The UN Resident Coordinator in Serbia, Francoise Jacob, emphasized the need to move from short-term decisions to long-term and structural plans based on green transformation and reducing inequalities.
The Serbian economy has been resilient because it had support during the crisis and a good foundation in legislation. However, caution is necessary, especially regarding Serbia’s ambitious plans for 2027 and the investments that will come – said Jacob, adding that our country has achieved 25% of sustainable development goals, which is above the global average.
Nevertheless, Western Balkan countries need higher economic growth to catch up with EU countries, stated Peter Tabak, Chief Regional Economist of the EBRD.
The growth could accelerate to 4 or 5%, which would mean a realistically rapid development. This requires not only larger investments but also more efficient public administration and better management of public enterprises. A few years ago, a study was conducted that showed that improving the efficiency of state-owned enterprises to the level of private ones would lead to a 2% increase in GDP – explained Tabak and mentioned that work on this is already underway.
The biggest challenges for the economy are the availability of workforce and inflation
At the event, preliminary results of NALED’s business sentiment survey were also presented, indicating that only half of the business owners expect an increase in investments this year. The major challenges for the economy, according to the survey, are the availability of workforce and inflation. The business sector emphasizes that laws related to labor and employment, wage burdens, energy, construction, and the environment should be prioritized on the agenda of the new Serbian government, along with the need to align with EU regulations.
Private consumption, coupled with the return of inflation to the designated range by the end of the year, increased wages, and a decline in interest rates in the second half of the year, will lead to economic growth – stated Nikola Vuletić, Executive Director of UniCredit Bank in Serbia. He added that real estate prices are currently stagnating, but he expects this sector to continue growing in a year.
In the previous year, both the domestic and global economies demonstrated significant resilience, according to Miloš Zečević, Director of the Controlling and Accounting Sector at Erste Bank. He mentioned that the monetary policy implemented by the National Bank of Serbia is leading to a reduction in inflation, and by the end of the year, inflation could drop to around five percent. Regarding the movement of the Euribor, he highlighted that this interest rate, currently around four percent, could fall to 2.9 percent by the end of the year.
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